AME Group - Feature Article

Lithium August 2024

What Happened to all the Lithium Projects?

Between 2021 and 2022, the lithium boom was showing no signs of relenting and producers clambered to get new lithium mines into production to meet demand. However, new supply and a weaker than anticipated demand from EVs, soon led to a huge decline in the lithium price.

EVs & Batteries August 2024

China Diversifies

China’s efforts to prop up growth on the back of new technology exports, such as EVs, is increasingly putting it at odds with its key trading partners. The US, Canada, the EU, Brazil, India and Turkey have been raising tariffs or imposing new ones on low-cost Chinese EV imports that threaten to overwhelm local industries.

Aluminium July 2024

Recycling Ramps Up

Secondary aluminium, produced using scrap from manufacturing waste or end-of-life aluminium products, offers substantial environmental benefits. Compared to primary production, it requires about 95% less energy and saves over 16t of greenhouse gases for every 1t of recycled production. This cost-effective and cleaner method is driving significant growth in the low-carbon aluminium market.

Iron Ore July 2024

Green Iron Investment Boom

Green steel is forecast to comprise up to 50% of global steel production by 2050. As the world decarbonises, steel producers are looking at reducing the carbon emissions associated with their production processes.

Steel July 2024

India’s Steel Vision 2047

India has the world’s fastest expanding steel industry as steelmakers rush to meet the government’s steel goal to expand capacity to 300Mtpa by 2031 and 500Mtpa by 2047.

Wind Farms July 2024

New Highs in Wind Capacity Growth

Global onshore wind installations exceeded 100GW for the first-time last year, with Asia Pacific and Latin America posting records. Europe and Africa & Middle East also saw strong performances. While North America saw a 16% decline, due to the US slowdown.

Gold July 2024

The Rise of Urban Mining

With estimates that around 7.0% of the world’s gold is currently contained within electronic waste, urban mining—the process of reclaiming raw materials from electronic waste and other sources—is emerging as a pivotal, and profitable, approach to sustainable resource management.

EVs & Batteries July 2024

Europe’s Battery Woes

Europe’s battery industry is grappling under the strain of slower EV sales and rising, low-cost competition from Chinese firms. That has led to 160GWh of planned investment being yanked from the region since the start of the year.

Metallurgical Coal July 2024

Russian Exports Under Pressure

The US slapped new sanctions on Russia last month, this time clearly targeting coal suppliers, including Elga and Coalstar. The inclusion of Elga could potentially have a significant impact on the metallurgical coal market. Elga has been the key driver of growth from Russia, with the potential to produce up to 45Mtpa at maximum capacity.

Zinc July 2024

The Role of Secondary Zinc

The production of zinc generates ~3-4 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of zinc. With global production of finished zinc in 2024 estimated at 14.1Mt, this gives the industry a carbon footprint of roughly 42-56Mt of CO2.

Nickel July 2024

Indonesia - A Mixed Bag

The flurry of newly announced high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) projects in Indonesia has intensified competitiveness amid slowing EV sales growth, leading to the termination of two major operations.

Copper July 2024

Copper Ore Grade Trends

Data extracted from AME’s global mine database reveals that, between 2005 and 2023, the global average grade of copper ore mined has declined at a CAGR of 1.6% over the past 18 years, dropping from 0.75% in 2005 to 0.56% in 2023.

Thermal Coal in Transition July 2024

Korea and Nuclear?

South Korea accounted for around 7.5% of global export thermal coal demand in 2023. However, due to the government's strong push for nuclear energy and decarbonisation efforts, thermal coal imports are forecasted to fall to around 77Mt in 2024 from around 84Mt in 2023.

Metallurgical Coal June 2024

US Becomes More Comparable

Despite being the third largest producer of export metallurgical coal, the US has always been known as the “swing producer”. That’s largely because the country’s high-cost producers are more vulnerable to declining coal prices and oversupply.

Thermal Coal in Transition June 2024

Vietnam’s Rapid Rise

Vietnam’s coal-fired generation reached 57TWh during the first four months of 2024, a 43% increase from a year ago. Abnormal temperatures and heat waves have led to increased cooling consumption during the peak summer period.

EVs & Batteries June 2024

Europe’s Recycling Revolution

Europe is pushing to become more self-sufficient and limit reliance on China by building a circular supply chain for batteries. A tide of regulation will incentivise the development of the bloc’s recycling industry.

Nickel June 2024

New Caledonia’s Nickel Calamity

Weeks of riots and protests have paralysed the New Caledonian nickel sector, with mining operations suspended and processing plants struggling to operate amidst high costs and dwindling feed.

Aluminium June 2024

LME’s Russian Metal Problem

Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has generated headaches for the LME warehousing system. The proportion of Russian aluminium stored in LME warehouses has grown significantly since the conflict began.

LNG June 2024

The Middle East’s LNG Renaissance

Qatar’s latest initiative, the North Field West expansion, will incorporate an additional 16Mtpa of LNG capacity. This will lift national capacity from 77Mtpa to 142Mtpa by 2030. We assume there is a good potential this project will be delivered close to schedule.

Steel June 2024

Southeast Asia: Future Hotspot

Southeast Asia’s rapid urbanisation is driving demand for steelmaking capacity to meet the growing needs of infrastructure, transportation and machinery.

Iron Ore June 2024

Advances in Magnetite

As the world races to decarbonise the steel industry, the unique properties of magnetite are propelling it to the forefront of sustainability. From high-grade pellets to ambitious new mining projects, magnetite is transforming the landscape of iron ore production.

Copper June 2024

Chinese Efforts to Defy Copper Supply Shortage

China ranks third in the world for copper in concentrate production, following Chile and Peru, accounting for approximately 9.4% of global supply. Despite this significant position in the copper concentrate supply chain, the country struggles to meet its rapidly increasing demand.

Steel May 2024

US Green Steel Projects Take Off

AME’s forecast for 2024 crude steel production in the US is 85.2Mt, an increase of 7.3% from the previous year. The US is embracing the new green steel economy, ramping up renewable energy and electric vehicles.

EVs & Batteries May 2024

Sodium-ion Batteries for EVs?

Among the nascent battery technologies with disruptive potential is sodium-ion (Na-ion), particularly in the rapidly growing energy storage sector. Recent developments are making the case for their use in entry-level cars too.

Thermal Coal in Transition May 2024

Impact of G7 on Coal

The G7 summit was hosted in Italy on April 30, 2024. This highly anticipated summit was in the spotlight because it was expected to establish a timeline for the coal phaseout, which was a key item on the agenda.

Steel May 2024

Forging a Sustainable Future in Steel

Currently 6-9% of all global carbon emission are from steelmaking. Coal meets around 75% of the energy demand in the steel sector. Active and significant reduction of carbon emissions is needed to ensure the net zero goal is met by 2050.

Nickel May 2024

China Persists Through Nickel Slowdown

In 2024, demand for finished nickel is forecast to increase. This strong growth is largely driven by China, where stainless-steel production is not only recovering but also continuing to expand, despite reductions in stainless-steel production in other regions like Europe.

Steel May 2024

What is the Green Steel Premium?

Green steel is forecast to comprise up to 50% of global steel production by 2050. In recent years, a growing number of steelmakers have released their own brand of green steel as a marketing positioning tool with the potential to capture the green steel premium.

Copper April 2024

AI Data Centres Use More Copper

AME’s revised forecast for global refined copper demand is a 5.1% year-on-year increase to 28,356kt in 2024, representing an upward revision from the previous forecast of a 4.9% increase to 28,008kt, primarily due to stronger-than-expected demand in China.

Solar Farms April 2024

How Efficient Are Solar Cells in 2024?

Throughout 2024, significant advancements in solar panel efficiency have been achieved worldwide. These breakthroughs underscore the ongoing innovation in solar technology, shaping the future of renewable energy generation.

EVs & Batteries April 2024

Hybrid Heyday

The automobile industry still largely believes that developing profitable battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will take priority over the long-term, but the rising popularity of hybrids is prompting some to change their plans.

Metallurgical Coal March 2024

M&A Frenzy

The past month has seen significant M&A transactions, underscoring the varied strategies adopted by different companies. While some aims to divest entirely from coal, others are keen to strengthen their position in the sector.

Steel March 2024

Steel Scrap is King

As steel producers release their decarbonisation plans the growing commonality to achieve these goals in the short and long term is to increase steel scrap usage.

EVs & Batteries March 2024

Reality Bites

While automakers are still betting big on future demand for EVs and the long-term path looks bright, the industry’s red-hot projections that assumed sustained, rapid growth have received a reality check.

Copper March 2024

India - A New Power

To meet rising demand for copper, India relies heavily on imports. Its imports of refined copper increased by 30% in the financial year of 2023 and 180% in the first half of FY2024. Prior to the 2018 closure of Vedanta’s 400ktpa Tuticorin smelter in Tamil Nadu, India was a net exporter of copper.

Lithium March 2024

China’s Rush into Africa

China's rapid pursuit of lithium poses a significant challenge for the West, as America and its allies aim to loosen China's control over clean-energy supply chains.

Aluminium March 2024

Indonesia Gambles on Development

Indonesia’s primary aluminium supply has remained largely stagnant for decades. The Inalum-operated Asahan smelter, with a current capacity of ~250ktpa, has stood as Indonesia's sole primary aluminium production facility.

Nickel March 2024

The Australian Nickel Pickle

The recent decline in nickel trading prices, driven by Indonesia’s staggering growth, has significantly affected numerous Western producers, especially those in Australia positioned at the higher end of the cost curve.

Gas in Transition (Oil) March 2024

US Long Gas Production Tail

The US maintains a heavy reliance on fossil fuels for its primary energy supply, with projections indicating that this trend will persist until at least 2040, with fossil fuels still comprising 64% of total primary energy supply.

Thermal Coal in Transition March 2024

Colombia is Surviving

Europe’s demand is declining as the region phases out coal, coupled with low natural gas prices that continue to outstrip coal's competitiveness. AME forecasts that European demand for thermal coal will drop to 96Mt in 2024, a 20% decrease compared to the peak in 2022.

Gold March 2024

Canada’s Golden Growth

Gold production in Canada is forecast to rapidly expand over the next five years. Canada has historically sat globally as the fourth major producer of gold, but by 2026 growth projections estimate Canada will overtake Russia to sit as the third largest global producer behind Australia and China producing 10.4Moz of gold, up from 6.7Moz in 2023.

Metallurgical Coal February 2024

Uneasy Ties

It has been a year since China officially lifted the unofficial ban on Australian coal. The Chinese government initially imposed the ban in early October 2020. Customs clearance for Australian coal was only resumed at the beginning of 2023.

Thermal Coal in Transition February 2024

Looming Costs, Large Production

Australia is one of the largest providers of export thermal coal. The country has recently seen significant changes in policy with a range of upcoming projects to bring further supplies to the market. AME expects that Australian thermal coal supply will grow from 196Mt to 234Mt by 2026.

Wind Farms February 2024

Wind’s Global Supply Odyssey

AME anticipates surpassing 2TW of global installed wind capacity by 2030, but growth lags behind the levels needed for a 1.5C pathway.

Gold February 2024

China Flocks to Gold as Economic Recovery Lags

China was the key driver for gold jewellery and investment in 2023, as local property, equity and currency markets fell flat. Coupled with robust buying from central banks, Chinese demand helped push the gold price to record highs in December and keep it above US$2,000/oz.

Nickel February 2024

Is Going Green a Dream?

The advent of ‘green’ nickel, a pivotal element in the expanding EV battery sector, was met with considerable enthusiasm by consumers aiming to develop a fully low-carbon supply chain. Its potential to significantly impact the energy landscape led to substantial interest from major mining conglomerates.

EVs & Batteries February 2024

The West is Worried as China’s EV Sector Speeds Up

As the shift away from internal combustion engine vehicles heats up, established carmakers are beginning to worry that Chinese automakers might run them off the road. Lower comparative costs from heavy investment in supply chains give Chinese firms an edge.

Copper February 2024

Asia’s Dark Horse - Indonesia

Indonesia holds a prominent position in supplying the international copper market. Its copper in concentrate production currently ranks fourth in the world after Chile, Peru and China, accounting for approximately 5.0% of the total global copper concentrate supply.

Steel February 2024

Decarbonising Steel

The EU is targeting a reduction of net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030, from 1990 levels. Consequently, steel producers in Europe will lead the green steel transition with a signification number of companies deciding to implement ‘Carbon Direct Avoidance’. This means shutting down existing BF/BOF and investing in EAF and DRI steelmaking technology.

Lithium February 2024

Lithium Turbulence

The global lithium market is facing unprecedented instability due to a prolonged and substantial decline in price, coupled with a slowdown in demand. This turmoil is creating chaos in the mining sector, halting projects, thwarting deals and instigating a desperate search for funds that is expected to echo through the industry for years.

Zinc February 2024

Zinc’s Role in Decarbonisation

Galvanising accounts for around 60% of zinc demand. However, zinc is also employed in various applications such as die-casting alloys, brass semis and casting, oxides and chemicals, semi-manufactured goods, and other industrial uses.

Hydrogen January 2024

Year in Review

High cost is the main barrier for green hydrogen’s uptake. The current production cost of green hydrogen is between US$2-8/kg depending on the region, while grey hydrogen produced without carbon capture is only US$1-3/kg. Scaling up production to produce large volumes of green hydrogen could make it economically viable at this stage. The cost of large-scale hydrogen production could be reduced to lower than EUR2/kg.