Data extracted from AME’s global mine database reveals that, between 2005 and 2023, the global average grade of copper ore mined has declined at a CAGR of 1.6% over the past 18 years, dropping from 0.75% in 2005 to 0.56% in 2023.
Specifically, open-pit oxide ore grades have decreased annually by 0.8%, from 0.5% to 0.44%, while open-pit sulphide ore grades have declined at a CAGR of 2.2%, from 0.78% to 0.52%. Underground sulphide ore grades have also seen a decline, with a CAGR of 2.0%, falling from 1.39% to 0.96%. These declines are primarily attributed to reduced grades at some of the largest, long-life mines and the development of new low-grade mines. The trend of declining grades is forecast to stabilise over the next five years, holding steady at around 0.56%. This stabilisation is attributed to the recent launches of several medium-to-large-scale, high-grade mines in traditionally less-comfort jurisdictions, such as Kamoa-Kakula in the DRC, Timok in Serbia, and Khoemacau and Motheo in Botswana. Furthermore, transitions from low-grade open-pit to high-grade underground mining at existing operations like Grasberg in Indonesia, Chuquicamata in Chile, Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia, and Kennecott in the US contribute to this stabilisation.