What is the future for green ammonia?

Global production of ammonia has increased steadily over the past decade, with a 21.6% increase in production from 2009 to 2020. Production in 2020, stood at 152.4Mt. Over 80% of the world’s ammonia production is used in the production for fertiliser, in the form of salts such as ammonium phosphate, and ammonium sulphate.

The remainder sees a variety of uses, including as feedstock for the production of other nitrogen compounds, such as explosives. The recent surge in price in natural gas as a result of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, in addition to a continuing Chinese export restriction on the export of di-ammonium phosphate, likely means an increase in ammonia and ammonia-derived products in 2022.

The predominant mode of ammonia production is via the Haber-Bosch process, which uses synthesis gas to supply the hydrogen that reacts with atmospheric nitrogen to form ammonia. Synthesis gas for the Haber-Bosch process is usually obtained through the steam reforming of natural gas. As natural gas has historically been an indispensable factor in the production of ammonia, its price has had a strong impact on the prevailing ammonia price. It is estimated that 3-5% of natural gas production is used in the production of ammonia.

In recent years, there has been a growing interest in the production of ammonia via lower emissions means. The approach that has attracted the most interest is the generation of the required hydrogen through the electrolysis of water, where the necessary power is supplied by renewable energy.

Examples of recent interest in green hydrogen driven ammonia production include recent moves by companies such as EBIC in Egypt to install electrolysing plant capacities, as well as an upcoming green ammonia production plant by Canadian company FuelPositive. Several large established ammonia producers have also committed to reducing their dependence on fossil fuels.

These include Yara, which operates the Western Australia Yara Pilbara plant, one of the largest ammonia plants in the world, producing 840ktpa , committing to the construction of an auxiliary solar-powered ammonia plant in next to its existing plant. Despite moves towards adoption of low emissions production technology by some ammonia producers, the industry is expected to remain dependent on natural gas in the medium term, given the economic incentive for many producers to continue utilising natural steam gas reforming infrastructure.