March 2024
Europe’s demand is declining as the region phases out coal, coupled with low natural gas prices that continue to outstrip coal's competitiveness. AME forecasts that European demand for thermal coal will drop to 96Mt in 2024, a 20% decrease compared to the peak in 2022.
Considering Colombia accounted for around 30% of total exports to Europe in 2023, one might expect the supply of Colombian coal to decrease in line with reduced demand from its largest customer. However, AME anticipates that Colombia will export around 61Mt of coal in 2024, a 5% year-on-year increase as new buyers from East Asia are expected to take advantage of its cheaper prices. AME expects that there will be increased demand for premium quality coal from other regions, as the supply of premium thermal coal remains tight. This tightness is exacerbated by the absence of additional supply from Australia, where strict regulatory hurdles prevent new projects from coming online.   Why Colombian Coal? The reason why Colombian coal is favourable to Europeans is due to two main factors: quality and price. Colombian coal is known for its high energy content and low impurities. It has a high calorific value and is considered premium thermal coal, similar to that produced in Australia. Thus, it is generally less carbon-intensive than the low-calorific coal produced in Indonesia.