March 2024
While automakers are still betting big on future demand for EVs and the long-term path looks bright, the industry’s red-hot projections that assumed sustained, rapid growth have received a reality check.
Car giants including Ford, Toyota and Volkswagen have all trimmed their expectations for EV sales in recent months. Renault has called off a stock market listing of its EV unit, partly citing weak demand. Ford and General Motors have recently scaled back expansion plans. But this is not a story of doom and gloom. Global EV sales will continue growing, but at a slower pace as widespread adoption is being held back by higher comparative prices and inadequate infrastructure. We expect global EV sales (BEV + PHEV) to rise by 21% to 16.5m in 2024, compared to the 30% growth to 13.6m last year.     EVs are becoming mainstream. They made up 18% of global passenger vehicle sales last year, from just 4% in 2020. We expect that share to rise to 24% in 2025. The biggest EV sellers will see robust sales increases this year, even as the rate of growth eases.